My goals for the race (split times) below are based on what I know I can do. Whether or not I do it depends on the how I'm feeling and how much pain I can push thru. Even though this hamstring tendon/ITB issue isn't resolved, I am going to press on and assume it will be by Sunday. If its not, my splits will suffer, but here is what I'm going for:
RUN 1: 10k (6.2 miles) in sub- 39:30 (39:29 or faster means a 6:21 pace)
BIKE: 40k (24.8 miles) in sub- 1 hour (59:59 or faster)
RUN 2: 5k (3.1 miles) in sub - 19:30 (or faster means a 6:16 pace)
How did I set these goals? My fastest 10k was 39:03 on a course that went uphill for 2 of the last 2.75 miles. Had it been flat or even rolling with little rises it would have been sub 39 pretty easily. Healthy, I know I can to that on a 2 loop flat course without going all-out. I'm NOT going to try to PR my 10k knowing I have a lot following it, but sub 39:30 shouldn't have me nailed.
The BIKE: I shouldn't even be making a goal here as there are way too many variables. The course WILL be very congested which will even affect the guys that hit it first as eventually EVERYONE in our wave will be on the 4 mile loop at the same time for the majority of the bike section. It's not draft legal, but with hundreds on the course at once, it could look like the start of an off-road race that bottlenecks shortly after the start with everyone lined up. Drafting may be inevitable. It might not even be that you're saving time and energy if you draft. You could be waiting as you are behind someone looking for a spot to pass them. Anyway, I need to have a goal. It's reported to be a flat course so 25 MPH average wouldn't be hard. Heck, some will easily be way over that. However, 6 laps with turnarounds (probably around cones) will slow things down considerably so basically, the two mile stretch back and forth will have to have the computer showing 26 MPH+ in order to average 25. We'll see.
Run 2: My fastest 5k as the final section at the Rochesterfest Sprint Tri this year was a 5:59 pace (18:48--which means the course was just over 3.1 miles). That was a very short race with 1/4 mile swim and a 10 mile bike so the sub 6 pace was about right. After maintaining 25.9 on the bike over a 21 mile course at HOLT I did 5.3 miles at a 6:19 pace. I know I can pace at 6:16 for 5k. However, can I do this after a 10k run and a 40k bike? Sunday will answer that.